The week the AI giants asked for a speed limit

1. The AI giants want to write their own rules

The question

• Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are forming their own safety group. Are they getting ahead of the government?

My answer

• Yes. They are choosing self-regulation to preempt strict government oversight.
• India has seen this before. Real-money gaming regulated itself for years through its own industry bodies. In 2025 the government banned real-money games outright.
• America is a different country with different priorities. Trump has been very pro-AI, so I expect this White House to maintain a light touch.
• The risk is the midterms. If Democrats take the House or the Senate, AI rules could get much tougher.
• We build very little of the most advanced AI models ourselves, so we will use their models under their rules.

Why I think so

• Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are creating an AI safety standards body without government oversight.¹
• The companies hope to launch it by late 2026 or early 2027.¹
• On 23 September, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Greg Casar introduced a bill to pause advanced AI development and create a federal Department of AI.²
• Democrats have led the generic congressional ballot by about 6 to 7 points going into November.³

What would change my mind

• A Republican hold on both chambers in November, or the safety body launching with real teeth that rivals can join.

The call for next Monday

• The safety body gets more members, and the Sanders bill stalls during this Congress. (To watch: new members of the AI safety body, and the Sanders bill.)

2. Two doors for the Gulf’s oil, both under fire

The question

• Brent is back above $103. Why is oil climbing again?

My answer

• Most Gulf oil leaves through two doors, and both are under attack.
• Door one is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran mined it and attacked ships. Now the American navy runs a blockade on Iranian oil in the same strait.
• Door two is Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, and from there north to the Suez Canal. The pipeline was hit, and the Houthis, armed by Iran, now hold the Red Sea coast of Yemen and are attacking ships.

Why I think so

• Brent crude has jumped back above $103 per barrel.⁴
• Iran has largely blocked Hormuz since 28 February. It laid sea mines and attacked merchant ships.⁵
• The American naval blockade has halted new Iranian oil exports. About 13.5 million barrels a day now clear the strait, still well below prewar levels.⁶
• Strikes forced a shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline in September, as the Houthis took Yemen’s Red Sea coastline.⁷
• The Houthis captured Mocha and Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb, the mouth of the Red Sea.⁸

What would change my mind

• A ceasefire that reopens Hormuz at full volume, or the Saudi pipeline back at full flow.

The call for next Monday

• Brent stays above $100. (To watch: Hormuz daily volumes and Saudi pipeline flows.)

3. Why would a fund take India’s 7 percent?

The question

• American government bonds now pay over 5 percent. Is India still worth the risk for a big fund?

My answer

• Many of them are choosing not to. The gap between America and India has shrunk to about 2 points.
• A falling Rupee eats that gap. If the Rupee drops 2 percent in a year, the extra return is gone.
• High oil prices directly drive the Rupee’s decline.

Why I think so

• The American 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.135 percent, the highest level since July 2007.⁹
• India’s 10-year government bond yield was 7.11 percent on 25 September.¹⁰
• The Rupee weakened to 95.83 against the dollar as oil prices rose.¹¹
• Foreign investors pulled ₹20,974 crore from Indian stocks in September so far. That takes 2026 to ₹2.45 lakh crore, more than all of 2025 at ₹1.66 lakh crore.¹²
• Markets see a 70 percent chance of another American rate hike in late October.¹³
• The RBI’s special discounted exchange program for dollar deposits closes on 30 September.¹⁴

What would change my mind

• Oil falling below $90, or the American central bank pausing in October.

The call for next Monday

• Foreign investors keep selling, and the Rupee stays above 95. (To watch: weekly foreign investor flows and the 30 September swap window close.)

The scores

• Next Monday these three calls get graded, and the results get added to this post.
• The reel that week stays on the new three. Last week’s grades always live on last week’s post.