1. The race to own your AI agent
The question
- Three companies just launched agents that act for you. What are they, and which one wins?
My answer
- These agents want to run your life for you. They read your email, send you reminders, book your flights, buy your groceries, and get you dinner reservations.
- Think of one as a personal assistant with its own computer in the cloud. It is logged in as you and can act on your behalf.
- These agents are available for testing now, and adoption is expected to scale across the population within three years.
Why I think so
- Meta launched Muse on 8 September. It sends emails, books travel, fills forms, and negotiates for you on its own cloud computer.1
- Muse has a free tier and plans at $20 and $100 a month.2
- Muse overtook ChatGPT as the top free iOS app in the US and crossed 2.5 million downloads by 21 September.3
- Instinct texts and calls businesses for you to book trips, buy groceries, and cancel subscriptions. It raised $1 billion at a $10 billion valuation, four times its value a month earlier.4
- Days after that raise, Instinct began pushing product picks, and users said it felt like ads.5
- OpenAI launched Dots on 29 September. These are always-on agents inside ChatGPT with their own cloud computer, connected to more than 4,000 apps.6
- McKinsey estimates agents could handle up to $1 trillion of US retail by 2030. Bain puts it at 15 to 25 percent of online shopping.7
2. The RBI’s first rate hike since 2023
The question
- Will the RBI raise rates this week, and what changes for you?
My answer
- When inflation is high, the RBI raises rates to bring it down. Loans get costlier, so people and companies borrow and spend less, and prices cool down.
- If the hike happens, your monthly loan repayments go up, but your fixed-term savings accounts also pay more interest.
Why I think so
- The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meets 5 to 7 October, with the decision due on 7 October.8
- Nearly 60 percent of economists in a Reuters poll expect a 0.25 percentage point hike to 5.50 percent. That would be the first hike since February 2023.8
- The repo rate has stayed at 5.25 percent for four meetings, after 125 basis points of cuts in 2025.8
- Inflation is at 4.82 percent and crude is near $107. A majority of economists also expect another hike in December.9
3. How long before the Rupee hits 100?
The question
- Can the RBI hold the Rupee from crossing 100 to the dollar?
My answer
- The RBI will use its full policy toolkit to keep the Rupee stronger than the 100-per-dollar level.
- The trajectory says the Rupee will hit 100. It’s just a matter of when.
Why I think so
- India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $18.34 billion in a single week.10
- Reserves have dropped over $38 billion in just three weeks from their September peak.11
- The Rupee has lost over 7 percent of its value against the dollar this year.12
- United States 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002. This pulls capital away.13
- Indian banks faced $500 million in losses after the RBI capped their currency positions.14